[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On August 20, influenced by the widespread decline in domestic commodity sentiment, nickel prices fell below 120,000 yuan

SMM Nickel News on August 20:

Macro news:

(1) According to data from the Ministry of Finance, from January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13,583.9 billion yuan, up 0.1% YoY. Among this, the national tax revenue was 11,093.3 billion yuan, down 0.3% YoY; non-tax revenue was 2,490.6 billion yuan, up 2% YoY. From January to July, stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, up 20.7% YoY. Of which, securities transaction stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, up 62.5% YoY.

(2) US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview on the 19th that the US and China had "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues. Yellen stated, "We have had very good dialogue with China, and I expect we will meet again before November. I think the current work is going well."

Spot market:

Today, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were 119,400-122,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,900 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel ranged from 2,300-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel spot premiums and discounts was -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract opened lower and trended downward, influenced by the overall decline in commodity sentiment, with prices dropping below 120,000 yuan/mt. By midday, SHFE nickel was quoted at 119,700 yuan/mt, down 0.67% on the day.

Currently, nickel prices are mainly affected by macro sentiment. Expectations of loose domestic policies and a phased pullback in the US dollar provide support to nickel prices, but upside room remains constrained by geopolitical uncertainties and high inventory pressure. In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate in a tug-of-war between weak fundamentals and supportive macro sentiment, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.